Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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J-Long Group Limited (JL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.31 - $19.68$14.08
Multi-Stage$52.25 - $57.75$54.94
Blended Fair Value$34.51
Current Price$3.86
Upside794.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.130.540.000.120.060.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---76.12%0.00%-100.00%90.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.34%5.62%0.00%0.16%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.430.270.16
Cash Retained (M)1.921.921.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.43-0.27-0.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.501.661.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.113.113.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.530.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.530.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate3.24%3.24%3.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.31$14.08$19.68
Upside / Downside167.14%264.83%409.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.142.122.102.082.052.032.09
Payout Ratio10.02%26.02%42.01%58.01%74.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.210.550.881.201.521.831.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.24%3.24%3.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.530.530.54
Year 2 PV (M)0.810.830.84
Year 3 PV (M)1.061.091.13
Year 4 PV (M)1.291.341.39
Year 5 PV (M)1.481.561.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)157.07165.24173.76
Equity Value (M)162.23170.60179.30
Shares Outstanding (M)3.113.113.11
Fair Value$52.25$54.94$57.75
Upside / Downside1,253.60%1,323.39%1,396.03%

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