Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $144.65 - $216.79 | $178.85 |
| Multi-Stage | $299.89 - $330.38 | $314.83 |
| Blended Fair Value | $246.84 | |
| Current Price | $134.97 | |
| Upside | 82.89% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.17% | -0.37% | 3.79 | 4.54 | 6.67 | 5.63 | 6.20 | 5.81 | 4.53 | 4.22 | 4.41 | 5.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -16.49% | -31.90% | 18.57% | -9.22% | 6.69% | 28.15% | 7.34% | -4.24% | -11.93% | 27.20% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.12% | 5.11% | 7.77% | 4.43% | 5.68% | 6.11% | 3.56% | 3.40% | 3.53% | 3.86% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,961.61 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 420.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,541.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 392.32 | 245.20 | 147.12 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,541.52 | 1,541.52 | 1,541.52 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -392.32 | -245.20 | -147.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,149.20 | 1,296.32 | 1,394.40 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 112.65 | 112.65 | 112.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10.20 | 11.51 | 12.38 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.73 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10.20 | 11.51 | 12.38 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 13.93 | 15.24 | 16.11 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -2.37% | -1.37% | -0.37% |
| Fair Value | $144.65 | $178.85 | $216.79 |
| Upside / Downside | 7.17% | 32.51% | 60.62% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,961.61 | 1,934.72 | 1,908.20 | 1,882.04 | 1,856.23 | 1,830.79 | 1,885.71 |
| Payout Ratio | 21.42% | 35.13% | 48.85% | 62.57% | 76.28% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 420.10 | 679.72 | 932.14 | 1,177.52 | 1,415.99 | 1,647.71 | 1,744.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -2.37% | -1.37% | -0.37% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 628.63 | 635.07 | 641.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 797.28 | 813.70 | 830.28 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 931.45 | 960.37 | 989.88 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,035.90 | 1,079.00 | 1,123.43 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,114.81 | 1,173.08 | 1,233.77 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,275.69 | 30,806.05 | 32,399.76 |
| Equity Value (M) | 33,783.76 | 35,467.27 | 37,218.62 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 112.65 | 112.65 | 112.65 |
| Fair Value | $299.89 | $314.83 | $330.38 |
| Upside / Downside | 122.19% | 133.26% | 144.78% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |