Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Grande Royal Orchid Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust with Buy-Back Condition (GROREIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.70 - $10.01$8.27
Multi-Stage$12.84 - $14.13$13.47
Blended Fair Value$10.87
Current Price$8.00
Upside35.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.590.570.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.08%3.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.59%6.70%6.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.2232.0119.21
Cash Retained (M)167.89167.89167.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.22-32.01-19.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.67135.88148.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.00315.00315.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.70$8.27$10.01
Upside / Downside-16.24%3.42%25.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.09253.53250.99248.48246.00243.54250.84
Payout Ratio34.44%45.55%56.66%67.78%78.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.20115.49142.22168.41194.06219.18232.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)106.34107.42108.51
Year 2 PV (M)120.57123.04125.54
Year 3 PV (M)131.46135.52139.67
Year 4 PV (M)139.47145.25151.21
Year 5 PV (M)145.04152.59160.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,403.103,580.313,764.82
Equity Value (M)4,045.974,244.144,450.20
Shares Outstanding (M)315.00315.00315.00
Fair Value$12.84$13.47$14.13
Upside / Downside60.55%68.42%76.60%

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