Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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GPS Participações e Empreendimentos S.A. (GGPS3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.39 - $195.02$182.76
Multi-Stage$29.11 - $31.82$30.44
Blended Fair Value$106.60
Current Price$18.90
Upside464.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.83%0.00%0.340.260.000.800.110.150.120.000.000.00
YoY Growth--29.67%12,481.43%-99.74%623.46%-25.85%25.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.28%0.02%4.68%0.91%1.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)658.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)457.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.6382.2749.36
Cash Retained (M)200.50200.50200.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.63-82.27-49.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.87118.23151.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)671.16671.16671.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.180.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.180.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.39$182.76$195.02
Upside / Downside325.34%867.00%931.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)658.15700.93746.49795.01846.69901.72928.77
Payout Ratio69.54%73.63%77.72%81.81%85.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)457.65516.09580.18650.43727.36811.55859.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)479.90484.45489.00
Year 2 PV (M)501.68511.24520.89
Year 3 PV (M)523.00538.01553.31
Year 4 PV (M)543.86564.77586.28
Year 5 PV (M)564.26591.51619.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,923.7817,741.2118,589.92
Equity Value (M)19,536.4920,431.2021,359.21
Shares Outstanding (M)671.16671.16671.16
Fair Value$29.11$30.44$31.82
Upside / Downside54.01%61.07%68.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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