Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V. (GFNORTEO.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,060.64 - $3,839.35$3,355.06
Multi-Stage$479.95 - $525.45$502.28
Blended Fair Value$1,928.67
Current Price$172.19
Upside1,020.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.63%40.28%12.2212.8211.655.700.005.423.254.982.460.95
YoY Growth---4.68%9.98%104.56%0.00%-100.00%66.83%-34.70%102.59%159.38%128.82%
Dividend Yield--8.60%7.30%7.68%3.81%0.00%8.34%3.06%4.51%2.28%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56,788.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,962.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)46,825.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,357.607,098.504,259.10
Cash Retained (M)46,825.2046,825.2046,825.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,357.60-7,098.50-4,259.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)35,467.6039,726.7042,566.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,941.572,941.572,941.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.0613.5114.47
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.0613.5114.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.4416.8917.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,060.64$3,355.06$3,839.35
Upside / Downside515.97%1,848.46%2,129.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56,788.0060,479.2264,410.3768,597.0473,055.8577,804.4880,138.62
Payout Ratio17.54%32.04%46.53%61.02%75.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,962.8019,374.5729,967.7741,856.2355,163.5870,024.0374,128.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,930.9918,100.9518,270.91
Year 2 PV (M)25,668.3926,157.3026,650.83
Year 3 PV (M)33,180.0134,132.4935,103.02
Year 4 PV (M)40,470.7242,027.1143,627.96
Year 5 PV (M)47,545.3249,841.7852,226.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,247,011.581,307,242.701,369,779.02
Equity Value (M)1,411,807.011,477,502.331,545,657.86
Shares Outstanding (M)2,941.572,941.572,941.57
Fair Value$479.95$502.28$525.45
Upside / Downside178.73%191.70%205.16%

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