Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,419.44 - $5,132.45$4,499.32
Multi-Stage$641.86 - $702.72$671.73
Blended Fair Value$2,585.52
Current Price$139.80
Upside1,749.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS622.00%41.14%3.182.090.310.150.000.000.460.300.140.14
YoY Growth--52.01%571.32%109.58%0.00%-100.00%-99.96%54.34%120.25%-0.03%33.67%
Dividend Yield--2.71%2.99%1.12%1.22%0.00%0.00%5.65%2.72%1.53%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108,389.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,963.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)89,426.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,677.9413,548.718,129.23
Cash Retained (M)89,426.6789,426.6789,426.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,677.94-13,548.71-8,129.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)67,748.7375,877.9681,297.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,199.954,199.954,199.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.1318.0719.36
LTM Dividend per Share4.524.524.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.1318.0719.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.6522.5823.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,419.44$4,499.32$5,132.45
Upside / Downside915.34%3,118.40%3,571.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108,389.71115,435.04122,938.32130,929.31139,439.71148,503.29152,958.39
Payout Ratio17.50%32.00%46.50%61.00%75.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,963.0336,934.8157,162.8079,864.38105,275.65133,652.96141,486.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34,183.3734,507.3934,831.40
Year 2 PV (M)48,963.4049,896.0250,837.43
Year 3 PV (M)63,312.6165,130.0966,982.02
Year 4 PV (M)77,240.3280,210.7683,266.07
Year 5 PV (M)90,755.6695,139.2099,690.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,381,329.462,496,348.572,615,769.72
Equity Value (M)2,695,784.832,821,232.022,951,377.14
Shares Outstanding (M)4,199.954,199.954,199.95
Fair Value$641.86$671.73$702.72
Upside / Downside359.13%380.49%402.66%

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