Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $83.75 - $222.16 | $128.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $58.90 - $64.27 | $61.53 |
| Blended Fair Value | $94.80 | |
| Current Price | $44.55 | |
| Upside | 112.79% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 12.25% | 10.77% | 1.74 | 1.57 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 0.98 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 10.94% | 14.35% | 3.34% | 4.55% | 30.00% | 41.33% | 8.60% | 6.97% | -4.74% | -0.24% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.44% | 4.28% | 5.15% | 3.08% | 3.39% | 6.58% | 2.63% | 2.00% | 2.34% | 3.74% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,412.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,155.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,257.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 482.40 | 301.50 | 180.90 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,257.00 | 1,257.00 | 1,257.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -482.40 | -301.50 | -180.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 774.60 | 955.50 | 1,076.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 675.60 | 675.60 | 675.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.15 | 1.41 | 1.59 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.15 | 1.41 | 1.59 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.86 | 3.12 | 3.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $83.75 | $128.06 | $222.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 87.98% | 187.45% | 398.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,412.00 | 2,568.78 | 2,735.75 | 2,913.57 | 3,102.96 | 3,304.65 | 3,403.79 |
| Payout Ratio | 47.89% | 56.31% | 64.73% | 73.15% | 81.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,155.00 | 1,446.44 | 1,770.89 | 2,131.40 | 2,531.30 | 2,974.18 | 3,148.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,313.37 | 1,325.82 | 1,338.27 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,460.03 | 1,487.84 | 1,515.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,595.60 | 1,641.40 | 1,688.08 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,720.63 | 1,786.80 | 1,854.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,835.69 | 1,924.35 | 2,016.41 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 31,867.44 | 33,406.65 | 35,004.77 |
| Equity Value (M) | 39,792.76 | 41,572.87 | 43,418.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 675.60 | 675.60 | 675.60 |
| Fair Value | $58.90 | $61.53 | $64.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 32.21% | 38.12% | 44.26% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |