Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $33.56 - $89.03 | $51.32 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.44 - $25.59 | $24.50 |
| Blended Fair Value | $37.91 | |
| Current Price | $39.22 | |
| Upside | -3.35% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.34% | -4.03% | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.23% | -0.35% | 161.63% | 353.42% | -74.91% | 33.49% | 10,800.00% | -66.67% | -99.01% | -53.64% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.58% | 1.26% | 1.47% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 2.99% | 1.15% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 4.05% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,066.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 865.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,201.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 413.20 | 258.25 | 154.95 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,201.00 | 1,201.00 | 1,201.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -413.20 | -258.25 | -154.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 787.80 | 942.75 | 1,046.05 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $33.56 | $51.32 | $89.03 |
| Upside / Downside | -14.43% | 30.85% | 127.00% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,066.00 | 2,200.29 | 2,343.31 | 2,495.62 | 2,657.84 | 2,830.60 | 2,915.52 |
| Payout Ratio | 41.87% | 51.49% | 61.12% | 70.75% | 80.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 865.00 | 1,133.03 | 1,432.25 | 1,765.59 | 2,136.20 | 2,547.54 | 2,696.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,028.79 | 1,038.55 | 1,048.30 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,180.84 | 1,203.33 | 1,226.04 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,321.74 | 1,359.69 | 1,398.35 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,452.07 | 1,507.91 | 1,565.35 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,572.36 | 1,648.30 | 1,727.15 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 27,296.08 | 28,614.49 | 29,983.36 |
| Equity Value (M) | 33,851.88 | 35,372.27 | 36,948.54 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 | 1,444.00 |
| Fair Value | $23.44 | $24.50 | $25.59 |
| Upside / Downside | -40.23% | -37.54% | -34.76% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |