Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GuocoLand Limited (F17.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.18 - $9.96$5.10
Multi-Stage$3.42 - $3.75$3.58
Blended Fair Value$4.34
Current Price$1.50
Upside189.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.01%1.85%0.060.060.060.060.060.070.070.070.090.05
YoY Growth--0.14%0.01%0.00%0.00%-14.29%0.00%0.00%-22.22%80.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.99%3.76%3.91%3.78%3.73%4.77%3.47%3.67%3.95%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.4917.1810.31
Cash Retained (M)70.7570.7570.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.49-17.18-10.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2653.5760.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.381,114.381,114.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$3.18$5.10$9.96
Upside / Downside111.70%239.83%563.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.43143.14149.07155.26161.70168.41173.46
Payout Ratio48.52%56.82%65.11%73.41%81.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6881.3297.07113.97132.12151.57160.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)75.7376.4777.20
Year 2 PV (M)84.1785.8187.47
Year 3 PV (M)92.0494.7497.50
Year 4 PV (M)99.35103.26107.29
Year 5 PV (M)106.14111.39116.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,350.203,515.773,687.83
Equity Value (M)3,807.643,987.454,174.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.381,114.381,114.38
Fair Value$3.42$3.58$3.75
Upside / Downside127.79%138.54%149.71%

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