Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Emaar Development PJSC (EMAARDEV.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$306.16 - $500.87$469.39
Multi-Stage$80.68 - $88.36$84.45
Blended Fair Value$276.92
Current Price$13.45
Upside1,958.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.89%0.00%0.520.520.150.330.230.260.291.030.030.00
YoY Growth--0.05%243.97%-53.92%45.08%-12.98%-10.92%-71.73%3,203.74%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%6.10%2.75%7.38%8.98%11.99%7.49%19.13%0.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,068.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,720.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,348.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,013.771,258.61755.16
Cash Retained (M)7,348.857,348.857,348.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,013.77-1,258.61-755.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,335.086,090.246,593.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,997.893,997.893,997.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.521.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.521.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.202.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$306.16$469.39$500.87
Upside / Downside2,176.30%3,389.91%3,623.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,068.8510,723.3211,420.3412,162.6612,953.2313,795.1914,209.05
Payout Ratio27.01%39.61%52.21%64.81%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,720.004,247.645,962.387,882.0810,026.1612,415.6713,143.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,962.323,999.874,037.43
Year 2 PV (M)5,188.275,287.095,386.85
Year 3 PV (M)6,398.036,581.696,768.84
Year 4 PV (M)7,591.747,883.708,184.00
Year 5 PV (M)8,769.589,193.159,632.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)290,630.49304,668.05319,242.86
Equity Value (M)322,540.43337,613.56353,252.92
Shares Outstanding (M)3,997.893,997.893,997.89
Fair Value$80.68$84.45$88.36
Upside / Downside499.83%527.87%556.95%

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