Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $263.77 - $465.24 | $349.22 |
| Multi-Stage | $239.67 - $262.03 | $250.64 |
| Blended Fair Value | $299.93 | |
| Current Price | $170.70 | |
| Upside | 75.71% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.12% | 5.14% | 3.07 | 2.99 | 2.80 | 2.53 | 2.29 | 2.28 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.05 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 2.53% | 6.97% | 10.53% | 10.42% | 0.52% | 3.80% | 4.74% | 2.53% | -0.19% | 10.28% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.80% | 2.31% | 2.83% | 2.30% | 2.41% | 6.39% | 2.99% | 2.92% | 2.99% | 4.03% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,795.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 771.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,024.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 959.00 | 599.38 | 359.63 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,024.00 | 4,024.00 | 4,024.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -959.00 | -599.38 | -359.63 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,065.00 | 3,424.63 | 3,664.38 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 251.25 | 251.25 | 251.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 12.20 | 13.63 | 14.58 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.07 | 3.07 | 3.07 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 12.20 | 13.63 | 14.58 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 15.27 | 16.70 | 17.65 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.14% | 10.14% | 10.14% |
| Growth Rate | 4.12% | 5.12% | 6.12% |
| Fair Value | $263.77 | $349.22 | $465.24 |
| Upside / Downside | 54.52% | 104.58% | 172.55% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,795.00 | 5,040.30 | 5,298.15 | 5,569.19 | 5,854.10 | 6,153.58 | 6,338.19 |
| Payout Ratio | 16.08% | 30.86% | 45.65% | 60.43% | 75.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 771.00 | 1,555.61 | 2,418.48 | 3,365.56 | 4,403.21 | 5,538.23 | 5,862.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.14% | 10.14% | 10.14% |
| Growth Rate | 4.12% | 5.12% | 6.12% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,398.93 | 1,412.36 | 1,425.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,955.83 | 1,993.58 | 2,031.69 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,447.60 | 2,518.81 | 2,591.38 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,879.71 | 2,991.94 | 3,107.43 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,257.19 | 3,416.65 | 3,582.29 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 48,277.40 | 50,640.82 | 53,095.90 |
| Equity Value (M) | 60,216.66 | 62,974.16 | 65,834.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 251.25 | 251.25 | 251.25 |
| Fair Value | $239.67 | $250.64 | $262.03 |
| Upside / Downside | 40.40% | 46.83% | 53.50% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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