Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$245.08 - $401.40$376.17
Multi-Stage$64.19 - $70.32$67.20
Blended Fair Value$221.68
Current Price$7.09
Upside3,026.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.16%1.84%0.270.150.270.210.120.230.300.240.270.26
YoY Growth--80.20%-45.32%29.66%70.39%-46.34%-24.72%27.48%-11.59%1.79%18.95%
Dividend Yield--3.77%3.21%5.39%5.68%1.83%4.36%5.33%4.13%5.17%6.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.6821.0512.63
Cash Retained (M)142.02142.02142.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.68-21.05-12.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.34120.97129.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.4483.4483.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.451.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.451.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$245.08$376.17$401.40
Upside / Downside3,356.65%5,205.64%5,561.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.41179.36191.02203.43216.66230.74237.66
Payout Ratio15.67%30.54%45.40%60.27%75.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3954.7786.72122.60162.78207.66219.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.0951.5752.06
Year 2 PV (M)75.4676.9078.35
Year 3 PV (M)99.52102.37105.29
Year 4 PV (M)123.25127.99132.87
Year 5 PV (M)146.67153.76161.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,859.685,094.405,338.11
Equity Value (M)5,355.675,607.005,867.79
Shares Outstanding (M)83.4483.4483.44
Fair Value$64.19$67.20$70.32
Upside / Downside805.30%847.79%891.87%

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