Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$364.91 - $707.65$663.17
Multi-Stage$110.08 - $120.51$115.20
Blended Fair Value$389.19
Current Price$34.49
Upside1,028.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.42%19.34%1.942.050.360.152.160.350.740.320.150.01
YoY Growth---5.39%471.06%137.29%-93.00%508.56%-51.88%133.31%113.66%1,361.08%-96.94%
Dividend Yield--9.81%9.53%2.28%1.10%14.30%2.60%3.58%1.97%1.00%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,350.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)502.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)848.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)270.14168.84101.30
Cash Retained (M)848.09848.09848.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-270.14-168.84-101.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)577.95679.25746.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)379.60379.60379.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.791.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.791.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$364.91$663.17$707.65
Upside / Downside958.03%1,822.80%1,951.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,350.711,438.511,532.011,631.591,737.641,850.591,906.11
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.33%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)502.62687.16893.571,123.911,380.421,665.531,763.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)640.23646.30652.37
Year 2 PV (M)775.68790.45805.37
Year 3 PV (M)908.99935.09961.68
Year 4 PV (M)1,040.201,080.201,121.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,169.311,225.791,284.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,251.1239,050.3640,918.47
Equity Value (M)41,785.5343,728.2045,743.66
Shares Outstanding (M)379.60379.60379.60
Fair Value$110.08$115.20$120.51
Upside / Downside219.16%234.00%249.39%

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