DDM Analysis: CRS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$66.72 - $98.70	$82.02
Multi-Stage	$82.55 - $90.50	$86.45
Blended Fair Value	$84.23
Current Price	$245.54
Upside	-65.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.76%	0.62%	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.76	0.68	0.67	0.69
YoY Growth	-	-	0.75%	1.52%	0.51%	0.26%	0.77%	0.52%	12.21%	0.88%	-2.01%	-8.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.32%	0.50%	1.16%	2.49%	2.36%	4.22%	1.48%	1.16%	1.40%	1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	413.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	373.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	82.74	51.71	31.03
Cash Retained (M)	373.40	373.40	373.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-82.74	-51.71	-31.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	290.66	321.69	342.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	50.60	50.60	50.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.74	6.36	6.77
LTM Dividend per Share	0.80	0.80	0.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.74	6.36	6.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.54	7.15	7.56
WACC / Discount Rate	10.46%	10.46%	10.46%
Growth Rate	0.60%	1.60%	2.60%
Fair Value	$66.72	$82.02	$98.70
Upside / Downside	-72.83%	-66.60%	-59.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	413.70	420.30	427.01	433.82	440.75	447.78	461.21
Payout Ratio	9.74%	25.79%	41.84%	57.90%	73.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.30	108.41	178.68	251.17	325.92	403.00	426.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.46%	10.46%	10.46%
Growth Rate	0.60%	1.60%	2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	97.18	98.15	99.11
Year 2 PV (M)	143.58	146.45	149.35
Year 3 PV (M)	180.92	186.37	191.93
Year 4 PV (M)	210.45	218.95	227.70
Year 5 PV (M)	233.27	245.10	257.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,311.42	3,479.31	3,653.95
Equity Value (M)	4,176.82	4,374.32	4,579.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	50.60	50.60	50.60
Fair Value	$82.55	$86.45	$90.50
Upside / Downside	-66.38%	-64.79%	-63.14%

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Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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