Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sariguna Primatirta Tbk (CLEO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$887.57 - $2,354.90$1,357.27
Multi-Stage$599.69 - $655.64$627.16
Blended Fair Value$992.21
Current Price$615.00
Upside61.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.051.651.005.010.000.000.000.004.000.00
YoY Growth--206.06%65.00%-80.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.22%0.21%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%10.26%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)452,474.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)392,474.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90,494.9556,559.3533,935.61
Cash Retained (M)392,474.77392,474.77392,474.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-90,494.95-56,559.35-33,935.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)301,979.82335,915.42358,539.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,959.9911,959.9911,959.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.2528.0929.98
LTM Dividend per Share5.025.025.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.2528.0929.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.2733.1034.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$887.57$1,357.27$2,354.90
Upside / Downside44.32%120.69%282.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)452,474.77481,885.63513,208.19546,566.73582,093.56619,929.65638,527.54
Payout Ratio13.26%28.61%43.96%59.30%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60,000.00137,859.41225,587.05324,136.82434,544.96557,936.68590,637.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125,176.98126,363.49127,550.00
Year 2 PV (M)185,990.27189,532.87193,108.88
Year 3 PV (M)242,656.81249,622.61256,720.46
Year 4 PV (M)295,383.93306,743.56318,427.73
Year 5 PV (M)344,369.82361,003.01378,272.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,978,736.256,267,511.446,567,338.75
Equity Value (M)7,172,314.057,500,776.987,841,418.62
Shares Outstanding (M)11,959.9911,959.9911,959.99
Fair Value$599.69$627.16$655.64
Upside / Downside-2.49%1.98%6.61%

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