Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chemed Corporation (CHE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$577.74 - $2,521.94$1,004.69
Multi-Stage$425.70 - $466.49$445.71
Blended Fair Value$725.20
Current Price$447.74
Upside61.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.48%6.63%1.841.601.501.501.431.341.271.181.121.06
YoY Growth--15.28%6.74%0.00%4.45%6.52%6.03%7.43%5.67%5.34%9.47%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.25%0.28%0.30%0.31%0.31%0.39%0.43%0.61%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)278.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)248.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.7634.8520.91
Cash Retained (M)248.11248.11248.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.76-34.85-20.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)192.35213.26227.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.7214.7214.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.0614.4815.43
LTM Dividend per Share2.082.082.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.0614.4815.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.1516.5717.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate4.48%5.48%6.48%
Fair Value$577.74$1,004.69$2,521.94
Upside / Downside29.04%124.39%463.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)278.81294.10310.23327.24345.19364.13375.05
Payout Ratio11.01%26.81%42.61%58.40%74.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6978.84132.17191.12256.14327.71346.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate4.48%5.48%6.48%
Year 1 PV (M)72.8373.5374.22
Year 2 PV (M)112.79114.96117.15
Year 3 PV (M)150.67155.04159.49
Year 4 PV (M)186.53193.78201.23
Year 5 PV (M)220.47231.22242.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,524.785,794.276,074.18
Equity Value (M)6,268.076,562.806,868.67
Shares Outstanding (M)14.7214.7214.72
Fair Value$425.70$445.71$466.49
Upside / Downside-4.92%-0.45%4.19%

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