Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chubb Limited (CB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,014.00 - $4,694.57$2,279.99
Multi-Stage$525.91 - $575.63$550.31
Blended Fair Value$1,415.15
Current Price$282.25
Upside401.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.18%5.24%3.503.403.353.423.393.303.263.192.862.10
YoY Growth--3.01%1.38%-1.86%0.94%2.51%1.27%2.22%11.51%36.08%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.16%1.32%1.73%1.60%2.14%2.96%2.31%2.33%2.10%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,675.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,488.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,187.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,935.001,209.38725.63
Cash Retained (M)8,187.008,187.008,187.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,935.00-1,209.38-725.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,252.006,977.637,461.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.86409.86409.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.2517.0218.20
LTM Dividend per Share3.633.633.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.2517.0218.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8820.6521.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,014.00$2,279.99$4,694.57
Upside / Downside259.26%707.79%1,563.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,675.0010,303.8810,973.6311,686.9112,446.5613,255.5913,653.26
Payout Ratio15.38%30.30%45.23%60.15%75.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,488.003,122.474,963.147,029.909,344.3811,930.0312,629.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,878.302,905.582,932.86
Year 2 PV (M)4,217.264,297.584,378.67
Year 3 PV (M)5,506.295,664.365,825.42
Year 4 PV (M)6,746.787,006.257,273.12
Year 5 PV (M)7,940.078,323.588,721.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)188,260.18197,353.21206,794.26
Equity Value (M)215,548.87225,550.56235,926.10
Shares Outstanding (M)409.86409.86409.86
Fair Value$525.91$550.31$575.63
Upside / Downside86.33%94.97%103.94%

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