Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

City Developments Limited (C09.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.63 - $15.85$13.11
Multi-Stage$27.41 - $30.26$28.80
Blended Fair Value$20.96
Current Price$5.19
Upside303.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.02%-7.48%0.140.230.240.190.210.300.310.270.260.30
YoY Growth---38.78%-7.27%27.87%-8.55%-29.20%-5.83%17.01%2.70%-12.46%-1.31%
Dividend Yield--2.72%3.43%2.97%2.81%2.62%2.70%3.86%2.17%3.15%3.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,199.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)204.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)994.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)239.88149.9289.95
Cash Retained (M)994.53994.53994.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-239.88-149.92-89.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)754.65844.60904.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)909.57909.57909.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.930.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.930.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-3.39%-2.39%-1.39%
Fair Value$10.63$13.11$15.85
Upside / Downside104.79%152.66%205.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,199.391,170.691,142.671,115.321,088.631,062.571,094.45
Payout Ratio17.08%31.66%46.25%60.83%75.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)204.86370.69528.46678.47821.00956.321,012.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-3.39%-2.39%-1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)345.49349.07352.64
Year 2 PV (M)459.05468.60478.26
Year 3 PV (M)549.29566.53584.12
Year 4 PV (M)619.49645.54672.41
Year 5 PV (M)672.54708.07745.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,282.8923,460.2924,686.95
Equity Value (M)24,928.7526,198.1127,519.47
Shares Outstanding (M)909.57909.57909.57
Fair Value$27.41$28.80$30.26
Upside / Downside428.08%454.96%482.96%

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