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Definitive Analysis

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Hugo Boss AG (BOSS.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.09 - $52.60$41.97
Multi-Stage$72.73 - $80.05$76.32
Blended Fair Value$59.14
Current Price$40.44
Upside46.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.94%-8.66%1.351.000.700.040.042.702.652.603.623.62
YoY Growth--35.00%42.86%1,649.76%0.00%-98.52%1.89%1.92%-28.18%0.00%8.38%
Dividend Yield--3.87%1.89%1.06%0.08%0.12%11.68%4.29%3.67%5.29%6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.8928.0616.84
Cash Retained (M)127.30127.30127.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.89-28.06-16.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.4099.24110.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.0269.0269.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.441.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.411.411.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.441.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.602.853.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-1.42%-0.42%0.58%
Fair Value$33.09$41.97$52.60
Upside / Downside-18.18%3.78%30.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.47223.53222.60221.67220.75219.83226.42
Payout Ratio43.29%52.63%61.97%71.32%80.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.17117.65137.95158.09178.05197.85209.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-1.42%-0.42%0.58%
Year 1 PV (M)109.53110.64111.75
Year 2 PV (M)119.57122.01124.47
Year 3 PV (M)127.56131.48135.48
Year 4 PV (M)133.75139.26144.94
Year 5 PV (M)138.36145.52152.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,391.174,618.444,855.04
Equity Value (M)5,019.935,267.355,524.65
Shares Outstanding (M)69.0269.0269.02
Fair Value$72.73$76.32$80.05
Upside / Downside79.86%88.72%97.94%

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