Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.58 - $9.69 | $7.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $6.38 - $6.96 | $6.67 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.01 | |
| Current Price | $41.23 | |
| Upside | -83.01% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.50% | -0.90% | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.53% | -50.40% | -34.30% | 46.58% | 18.24% | 6.34% | 5.99% | 8.21% | 8.39% | 7.75% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.60% | 0.67% | 1.72% | 1.85% | 1.60% | 2.05% | 1.80% | 2.09% | 2.04% | 2.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 996.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 702.33 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 293.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 199.20 | 124.50 | 74.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 293.67 | 293.67 | 293.67 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -199.20 | -124.50 | -74.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 94.47 | 169.17 | 218.97 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.86% | 3.86% | 4.86% |
| Fair Value | $5.58 | $7.35 | $9.69 |
| Upside / Downside | -86.46% | -82.18% | -76.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 996.00 | 1,034.49 | 1,074.46 | 1,115.98 | 1,159.10 | 1,203.89 | 1,240.00 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.51% | 74.41% | 78.31% | 82.21% | 86.10% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 702.33 | 769.78 | 841.40 | 917.40 | 998.02 | 1,083.50 | 1,147.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.86% | 3.86% | 4.86% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 698.79 | 705.58 | 712.38 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 693.37 | 706.91 | 720.59 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 686.28 | 706.49 | 727.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 677.74 | 704.48 | 732.01 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 667.94 | 701.04 | 735.45 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,595.37 | 12,170.06 | 12,767.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,019.48 | 15,694.57 | 16,394.83 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 |
| Fair Value | $6.38 | $6.67 | $6.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -84.53% | -83.83% | -83.11% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |