Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (BCH-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.14 - $103.93$97.40
Multi-Stage$14.40 - $15.73$15.06
Blended Fair Value$56.23
Current Price$13.00
Upside332.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.96%11.03%0.370.511.410.330.230.220.230.180.140.12
YoY Growth---26.00%-64.29%324.98%43.23%4.55%-4.35%27.78%28.57%16.66%-7.69%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.45%6.93%1.62%1.58%1.95%1.35%1.06%1.09%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,289.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,072.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)257.98161.2496.74
Cash Retained (M)217.60217.60217.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-257.98-161.24-96.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-40.3856.37120.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,468.232,468.232,468.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.14$97.40$103.93
Upside / Downside154.95%649.23%699.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,289.901,373.751,463.041,558.141,659.421,767.281,820.30
Payout Ratio83.13%84.50%85.88%87.25%88.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,072.301,160.871,256.431,359.511,470.671,590.551,683.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,076.441,086.651,096.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,080.321,100.891,121.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,083.931,115.041,146.75
Year 4 PV (M)1,087.281,129.091,172.10
Year 5 PV (M)1,090.381,143.051,197.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,131.7631,587.1433,098.22
Equity Value (M)35,550.1237,161.8738,833.31
Shares Outstanding (M)2,468.232,468.232,468.23
Fair Value$14.40$15.06$15.73
Upside / Downside10.79%15.82%21.02%

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