Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AVTECH Sweden AB (publ) (AVT-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.23 - $10.39$7.25
Multi-Stage$4.00 - $4.36$4.17
Blended Fair Value$5.71
Current Price$10.90
Upside-47.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-88.22%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.442.151.29
Cash Retained (M)11.6011.6011.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.44-2.15-1.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.169.4510.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.4856.4856.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.23$7.25$10.39
Upside / Downside-52.01%-33.47%-4.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17.2018.3219.5120.7822.1323.5724.27
Payout Ratio32.56%44.05%55.53%67.02%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.608.0710.8313.9317.3721.2122.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7.247.317.38
Year 2 PV (M)8.728.899.05
Year 3 PV (M)10.0610.3510.64
Year 4 PV (M)11.2611.6912.13
Year 5 PV (M)12.3312.9213.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)176.05184.56193.39
Equity Value (M)225.65235.71246.13
Shares Outstanding (M)56.4856.4856.48
Fair Value$4.00$4.17$4.36
Upside / Downside-63.35%-61.71%-60.02%

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