Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lanson-BCC (ALLAN.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$839.30 - $1,497.62$1,403.49
Multi-Stage$236.21 - $258.69$247.24
Blended Fair Value$825.37
Current Price$37.40
Upside2,106.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.51%12.44%1.080.980.730.210.000.530.530.370.370.37
YoY Growth--10.06%35.37%245.31%0.00%-100.00%0.00%42.80%0.00%0.04%9.91%
Dividend Yield--3.09%2.40%2.28%0.74%0.00%1.99%1.76%1.12%1.09%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.176.363.81
Cash Retained (M)37.5937.5937.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.17-6.36-3.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4231.2433.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.756.756.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.064.625.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.961.961.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.064.625.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.026.596.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$839.30$1,403.49$1,497.62
Upside / Downside2,144.13%3,652.66%3,904.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.8654.1757.6961.4465.4369.6971.78
Payout Ratio26.09%38.87%51.65%64.44%77.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.2721.0629.8039.5950.5362.7266.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.6319.8220.00
Year 2 PV (M)25.9026.3926.89
Year 3 PV (M)32.0833.0033.94
Year 4 PV (M)38.1739.6441.15
Year 5 PV (M)44.1746.3048.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,435.511,504.841,576.83
Equity Value (M)1,595.461,669.991,747.33
Shares Outstanding (M)6.756.756.75
Fair Value$236.21$247.24$258.69
Upside / Downside531.58%561.08%591.70%

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