Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD (AHL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.62 - $97.92$78.14
Multi-Stage$95.33 - $104.82$99.98
Blended Fair Value$89.06
Current Price$36.71
Upside142.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%14.51%2.570.530.530.000.000.000.560.740.690.67
YoY Growth--383.87%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-23.67%6.64%3.54%1.19%
Dividend Yield--7.90%1.63%1.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.74%2.28%2.13%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)453.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)422.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.7856.7434.04
Cash Retained (M)422.90422.90422.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.78-56.74-34.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)332.12366.16388.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.9675.9675.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.374.825.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.374.825.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.785.235.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Fair Value$61.62$78.14$97.92
Upside / Downside67.85%112.87%166.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)453.90458.45463.05467.70472.39477.13491.44
Payout Ratio6.83%23.46%40.10%56.73%73.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.00107.57185.67265.33346.57429.41454.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Year 1 PV (M)98.8399.82100.81
Year 2 PV (M)156.74159.89163.07
Year 3 PV (M)205.80212.04218.40
Year 4 PV (M)246.98257.01267.34
Year 5 PV (M)281.17295.51310.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,251.986,570.896,902.67
Equity Value (M)7,241.517,595.167,962.73
Shares Outstanding (M)75.9675.9675.96
Fair Value$95.33$99.98$104.82
Upside / Downside159.68%172.36%185.54%

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