Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (9633.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.10 - $32.44$26.38
Multi-Stage$47.23 - $51.94$49.54
Blended Fair Value$37.96
Current Price$36.58
Upside3.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.55%0.00%0.750.680.450.170.710.850.040.030.000.00
YoY Growth--10.31%51.14%164.61%-76.04%-16.86%1,976.50%25.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.70%1.16%0.41%1.54%2.89%0.14%0.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26,049.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,081.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,968.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,209.893,256.181,953.71
Cash Retained (M)9,968.309,968.309,968.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,209.89-3,256.18-1,953.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,758.416,712.128,014.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,246.4711,246.4711,246.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.600.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.600.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.032.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$21.10$26.38$32.44
Upside / Downside-42.31%-27.88%-11.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26,049.4625,788.9725,531.0825,275.7725,023.0124,772.7825,515.96
Payout Ratio61.73%67.39%73.04%78.69%84.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,081.1617,378.3018,647.8819,890.3321,106.0722,295.5023,602.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)16,136.8816,301.5416,466.21
Year 2 PV (M)16,078.8316,408.6416,741.80
Year 3 PV (M)15,925.0016,417.4916,920.03
Year 4 PV (M)15,691.2416,341.5617,011.90
Year 5 PV (M)15,391.4516,192.9217,027.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)451,945.15475,478.98499,983.13
Equity Value (M)531,168.54557,141.14584,150.50
Shares Outstanding (M)11,246.4711,246.4711,246.47
Fair Value$47.23$49.54$51.94
Upside / Downside29.11%35.43%41.99%

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