Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hedab Alkhaleej Trading Co. (9631.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - SpecialtiesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.60 - $102.02$81.71
Multi-Stage$159.72 - $176.17$167.78
Blended Fair Value$124.75
Current Price$41.90
Upside197.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.980.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.905.573.34
Cash Retained (M)37.8237.8237.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.90-5.57-3.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.9232.2634.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.836.836.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.234.725.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.234.725.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.215.706.03
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$64.60$81.71$102.02
Upside / Downside54.19%95.02%143.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.5244.0843.6443.2042.7742.3443.61
Payout Ratio15.05%30.04%45.03%60.02%75.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.7013.2419.6525.9332.0838.1140.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.3812.5012.63
Year 2 PV (M)17.1717.5217.87
Year 3 PV (M)21.1721.8322.49
Year 4 PV (M)24.4825.5026.54
Year 5 PV (M)27.1828.6030.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)988.541,040.011,093.61
Equity Value (M)1,090.911,145.951,203.22
Shares Outstanding (M)6.836.836.83
Fair Value$159.72$167.78$176.17
Upside / Downside281.20%300.43%320.44%

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