Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Naba Alsaha Medical Services Company (9546.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.78 - $65.87$54.91
Multi-Stage$77.72 - $85.57$81.57
Blended Fair Value$68.24
Current Price$67.00
Upside1.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.200.200.000.170.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.33%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.127.584.55
Cash Retained (M)55.3655.3655.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.12-7.58-4.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2447.7850.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.5010.5010.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.124.554.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.124.554.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.625.055.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$44.78$54.91$65.87
Upside / Downside-33.17%-18.05%-1.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.6160.0059.4058.8158.2257.6459.37
Payout Ratio8.66%24.93%41.20%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.2514.9624.4733.7942.9351.8754.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.7013.8413.98
Year 2 PV (M)20.5220.9421.36
Year 3 PV (M)25.9426.7527.57
Year 4 PV (M)30.1831.4332.72
Year 5 PV (M)33.3935.1336.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)692.31728.36765.90
Equity Value (M)816.04856.44898.46
Shares Outstanding (M)10.5010.5010.50
Fair Value$77.72$81.57$85.57
Upside / Downside16.00%21.74%27.71%

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