Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hikari Tsushin, Inc. (9435.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28,668.15 - $48,194.15$37,220.64
Multi-Stage$23,408.92 - $25,500.09$24,435.91
Blended Fair Value$30,828.27
Current Price$42,560.00
Upside-27.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.11%15.19%687.68590.66540.85497.14461.80406.17353.40302.09233.46185.04
YoY Growth--16.43%9.21%8.79%7.65%13.70%14.93%16.99%29.40%26.17%10.64%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.97%2.63%3.57%2.37%1.65%1.49%1.55%1.98%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,794.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,166.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)70,628.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,958.8012,474.257,484.55
Cash Retained (M)70,628.0070,628.0070,628.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,958.80-12,474.25-7,484.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,669.2058,153.7563,143.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.9543.9543.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,152.951,323.261,436.79
LTM Dividend per Share663.66663.66663.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,152.951,323.261,436.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,816.601,986.912,100.45
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28,668.15$37,220.64$48,194.15
Upside / Downside-32.64%-12.55%13.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,794.00106,280.61113,188.85120,546.12128,381.62136,726.43140,828.22
Payout Ratio29.23%41.38%53.54%65.69%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,166.0043,979.9460,596.4779,187.3399,938.98123,053.79130,266.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38,834.8839,202.9939,571.09
Year 2 PV (M)47,247.8548,147.7949,056.22
Year 3 PV (M)54,520.2556,085.3357,680.08
Year 4 PV (M)60,758.1363,094.7265,498.06
Year 5 PV (M)66,058.9769,249.6572,562.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)761,343.51798,116.69836,297.26
Equity Value (M)1,028,763.601,073,897.161,120,665.14
Shares Outstanding (M)43.9543.9543.95
Fair Value$23,408.92$24,435.91$25,500.09
Upside / Downside-45.00%-42.58%-40.08%

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