Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $218.74 - $474.07 | $444.27 |
| Multi-Stage | $73.95 - $80.81 | $77.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $260.80 | |
| Current Price | $47.65 | |
| Upside | 447.31% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.79% | 7.14% | 1.93 | 0.85 | 1.41 | 1.53 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 127.88% | -40.00% | -7.89% | 11.76% | 13.33% | 15.38% | 8.33% | -7.69% | -18.75% | 33.33% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.69% | 1.78% | 3.69% | 4.42% | 3.92% | 4.57% | 4.40% | 3.99% | 4.97% | 5.94% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,743.35 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,533.59 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 209.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 348.67 | 217.92 | 130.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 209.75 | 209.75 | 209.75 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -348.67 | -217.92 | -130.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -138.92 | -8.17 | 79.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 731.34 | 731.34 | 731.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.91 | 2.09 | 2.20 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $218.74 | $444.27 | $474.07 |
| Upside / Downside | 359.06% | 832.37% | 894.90% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,743.35 | 1,856.66 | 1,977.35 | 2,105.87 | 2,242.75 | 2,388.53 | 2,460.19 |
| Payout Ratio | 87.97% | 88.37% | 88.78% | 89.19% | 89.59% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,533.59 | 1,640.82 | 1,755.51 | 1,878.17 | 2,009.37 | 2,149.68 | 2,275.68 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,527.36 | 1,541.84 | 1,556.31 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,521.12 | 1,550.09 | 1,579.34 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,514.88 | 1,558.36 | 1,602.67 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,508.63 | 1,566.64 | 1,626.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,502.37 | 1,574.93 | 1,650.28 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 46,507.00 | 48,753.31 | 51,085.58 |
| Equity Value (M) | 54,081.35 | 56,545.18 | 59,100.51 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 731.34 | 731.34 | 731.34 |
| Fair Value | $73.95 | $77.32 | $80.81 |
| Upside / Downside | 55.19% | 62.26% | 69.59% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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