Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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O-TA Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (8924.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.12 - $141.74$103.79
Multi-Stage$124.03 - $135.94$129.87
Blended Fair Value$116.83
Current Price$73.00
Upside60.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.08%0.00%4.2812.7813.624.973.781.194.890.000.000.00
YoY Growth---66.54%-6.20%174.00%31.58%216.67%-75.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.01%14.04%10.09%3.50%4.02%3.20%22.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)448.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)360.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.6556.0333.62
Cash Retained (M)87.9387.9387.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.65-56.03-33.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.7331.8954.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.2784.2784.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.380.64
LTM Dividend per Share4.284.284.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.380.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.264.654.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Fair Value$77.12$103.79$141.74
Upside / Downside5.65%42.17%94.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)448.27457.80467.54477.49487.64498.01512.95
Payout Ratio80.38%82.31%84.23%86.15%88.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)360.34376.81393.81411.37429.50448.21474.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate1.13%2.13%3.13%
Year 1 PV (M)349.67353.12356.58
Year 2 PV (M)339.12345.86352.67
Year 3 PV (M)328.73338.57348.62
Year 4 PV (M)318.49331.27344.44
Year 5 PV (M)308.42323.98340.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,806.969,251.109,712.98
Equity Value (M)10,451.3910,943.9111,455.44
Shares Outstanding (M)84.2784.2784.27
Fair Value$124.03$129.87$135.94
Upside / Downside69.90%77.91%86.22%

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