Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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GME Group Holdings Limited (8188.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.60 - $2.48$2.01
Multi-Stage$3.58 - $3.95$3.76
Blended Fair Value$2.88
Current Price$0.84
Upside243.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.090.000.000.000.000.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--17.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.6610.416.25
Cash Retained (M)64.0764.0764.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.66-10.41-6.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.4153.6657.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)484.82484.82484.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.60$2.01$2.48
Upside / Downside90.45%138.79%194.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.3082.4681.6480.8280.0179.2181.59
Payout Ratio23.08%36.47%49.85%63.23%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.2330.0740.7051.1161.3071.2975.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.9728.2628.54
Year 2 PV (M)35.2135.9336.66
Year 3 PV (M)41.1342.4043.70
Year 4 PV (M)45.8947.8049.76
Year 5 PV (M)49.6552.2354.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,536.821,616.841,700.17
Equity Value (M)1,736.671,823.461,913.75
Shares Outstanding (M)484.82484.82484.82
Fair Value$3.58$3.76$3.95
Upside / Downside326.44%347.76%369.93%

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