Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASICS Corporation (7936.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,361.81 - $5,254.14$3,409.66
Multi-Stage$1,697.03 - $1,853.80$1,773.99
Blended Fair Value$2,591.83
Current Price$3,872.00
Upside-33.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.27%16.25%20.3112.527.169.204.606.339.386.236.226.22
YoY Growth--62.24%74.85%-22.20%100.03%-27.30%-32.51%50.61%0.07%0.00%38.14%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.72%0.76%1.55%1.04%2.53%2.48%1.26%1.39%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85,180.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,796.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)69,384.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,036.0010,647.506,388.50
Cash Retained (M)69,384.0069,384.0069,384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,036.00-10,647.50-6,388.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)52,348.0058,736.5062,995.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)715.93715.93715.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share73.1282.0487.99
LTM Dividend per Share22.0622.0622.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share73.1282.0487.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend95.18104.11110.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,361.81$3,409.66$5,254.14
Upside / Downside-39.00%-11.94%35.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85,180.0090,716.7096,613.29102,893.15109,581.20116,703.98120,205.10
Payout Ratio18.54%32.84%47.13%61.42%75.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,796.0029,787.2045,530.5163,194.6182,962.67105,033.58111,189.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26,885.6927,140.5327,395.37
Year 2 PV (M)37,092.4437,798.9538,512.12
Year 3 PV (M)46,468.0447,801.9749,161.19
Year 4 PV (M)55,061.5657,179.0859,357.08
Year 5 PV (M)62,919.5365,958.5669,113.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)986,521.281,034,170.631,083,643.63
Equity Value (M)1,214,948.551,270,049.721,327,183.31
Shares Outstanding (M)715.93715.93715.93
Fair Value$1,697.03$1,773.99$1,853.80
Upside / Downside-56.17%-54.18%-52.12%

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