Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $50.12 - $81.86 | $64.30 |
| Multi-Stage | $98.51 - $108.14 | $103.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $83.77 | |
| Current Price | $67.55 | |
| Upside | 24.01% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | -4.81% | 2.29 | 1.11 | 0.83 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 106.87% | 33.12% | 69.60% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.84% | 2.11% | 2.02% | 1.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,492.77 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,549.34 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 943.43 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 698.55 | 436.60 | 261.96 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 943.43 | 943.43 | 943.43 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -698.55 | -436.60 | -261.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 244.88 | 506.83 | 681.47 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 770.00 | 770.00 | 770.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.31 | 3.31 | 3.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.63 | 3.97 | 4.20 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | -0.54% | 0.46% | 1.46% |
| Fair Value | $50.12 | $64.30 | $81.86 |
| Upside / Downside | -25.80% | -4.81% | 21.18% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,492.77 | 3,508.86 | 3,525.03 | 3,541.27 | 3,557.58 | 3,573.97 | 3,681.19 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.99% | 76.39% | 79.79% | 83.20% | 86.60% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,549.34 | 2,680.47 | 2,812.74 | 2,946.18 | 3,080.79 | 3,216.57 | 3,405.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | -0.54% | 0.46% | 1.46% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,488.04 | 2,513.06 | 2,538.07 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,423.40 | 2,472.38 | 2,521.84 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,356.15 | 2,427.93 | 2,501.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,286.93 | 2,380.30 | 2,476.50 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,216.31 | 2,329.99 | 2,448.29 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 64,078.03 | 67,364.74 | 70,784.95 |
| Equity Value (M) | 75,848.86 | 79,488.39 | 83,270.81 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 770.00 | 770.00 | 770.00 |
| Fair Value | $98.51 | $103.23 | $108.14 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.83% | 52.82% | 60.09% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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