Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kexing Biopharm Co., Ltd. (688136.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.21 - $7.78$6.43
Multi-Stage$10.03 - $11.03$10.52
Blended Fair Value$8.47
Current Price$39.02
Upside-78.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS44.13%0.00%0.220.230.100.080.050.040.050.240.000.00
YoY Growth---3.92%128.55%25.00%46.27%54.93%-27.63%-79.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.37%0.46%0.26%0.17%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1115.709.42
Cash Retained (M)78.9878.9878.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.11-15.70-9.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.8763.2969.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.05199.05199.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.21$6.43$7.78
Upside / Downside-86.65%-83.52%-80.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.57124.31123.07121.84120.62119.41122.99
Payout Ratio37.10%47.68%58.26%68.84%79.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.5859.2771.7083.8795.79107.47113.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)54.5855.1455.69
Year 2 PV (M)60.8062.0463.30
Year 3 PV (M)65.4967.5269.58
Year 4 PV (M)68.8871.7474.68
Year 5 PV (M)71.1674.8778.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,675.051,762.271,853.09
Equity Value (M)1,995.962,093.572,195.08
Shares Outstanding (M)199.05199.05199.05
Fair Value$10.03$10.52$11.03
Upside / Downside-74.30%-73.04%-71.74%

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