Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suntar Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. (688101.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.01 - $49.45$32.81
Multi-Stage$16.51 - $18.04$17.26
Blended Fair Value$25.04
Current Price$16.81
Upside48.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.49%14.91%0.180.010.180.210.260.020.020.020.030.04
YoY Growth--1,401.50%-93.46%-11.05%-20.87%1,538.51%-6.40%-2.59%-46.43%-22.84%-6.00%
Dividend Yield--1.31%0.09%1.28%1.31%1.67%0.09%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)366.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.0550.0330.02
Cash Retained (M)366.46366.46366.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.05-50.03-30.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)286.41316.43336.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)331.71331.71331.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.951.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.951.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.01$32.81$49.45
Upside / Downside36.86%95.21%194.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.23426.25453.95483.46514.89548.35564.80
Payout Ratio8.44%24.75%41.06%57.38%73.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.77105.50186.41277.39379.41493.52522.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)95.0795.9796.87
Year 2 PV (M)151.38154.26157.17
Year 3 PV (M)203.00208.82214.76
Year 4 PV (M)250.21259.83269.73
Year 5 PV (M)293.30307.46322.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,482.644,699.154,923.95
Equity Value (M)5,475.605,725.515,984.67
Shares Outstanding (M)331.71331.71331.71
Fair Value$16.51$17.26$18.04
Upside / Downside-1.80%2.68%7.33%

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