Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.91 - $35.27$30.02
Multi-Stage$36.85 - $40.48$38.63
Blended Fair Value$34.33
Current Price$216.86
Upside-84.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.640.001.060.330.570.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%221.68%-42.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.00%1.67%0.49%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)464.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.9958.1234.87
Cash Retained (M)395.73395.73395.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.99-58.12-34.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)302.74337.61360.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.97121.97121.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.053.343.53
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.91$30.02$35.27
Upside / Downside-88.51%-86.15%-83.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)464.97460.32455.72451.16446.65442.18455.45
Payout Ratio14.89%29.91%44.93%59.96%74.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.24137.69204.77270.50334.89397.97421.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)123.91125.18126.44
Year 2 PV (M)165.84169.24172.68
Year 3 PV (M)197.14203.24209.46
Year 4 PV (M)219.64228.75238.13
Year 5 PV (M)234.89247.12259.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,553.013,738.033,930.67
Equity Value (M)4,494.444,711.554,937.23
Shares Outstanding (M)121.97121.97121.97
Fair Value$36.85$38.63$40.48
Upside / Downside-83.01%-82.19%-81.33%

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