Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Orchestra Holdings Inc. (6533.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$645.38 - $3,745.81$1,199.58
Multi-Stage$389.66 - $425.48$407.24
Blended Fair Value$803.41
Current Price$753.00
Upside6.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.92%0.00%10.079.028.037.005.624.420.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.61%12.31%14.68%24.67%27.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%0.83%0.47%0.23%0.18%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)183.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.7522.9713.78
Cash Retained (M)77.7777.7777.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.75-22.97-13.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.0154.8063.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.769.769.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.205.626.56
LTM Dividend per Share10.8610.8610.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.205.626.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.0716.4817.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$645.38$1,199.58$3,745.81
Upside / Downside-14.29%59.31%397.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)183.77195.71208.43221.98236.41251.78259.33
Payout Ratio57.68%64.15%70.61%77.07%83.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106.00125.54147.17171.09197.49226.60239.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)115.19116.28117.37
Year 2 PV (M)123.90126.26128.65
Year 3 PV (M)132.16135.95139.82
Year 4 PV (M)139.97145.36150.89
Year 5 PV (M)147.36154.48161.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,143.203,295.023,452.65
Equity Value (M)3,801.793,973.354,151.25
Shares Outstanding (M)9.769.769.76
Fair Value$389.66$407.24$425.48
Upside / Downside-48.25%-45.92%-43.50%

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