Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Heiwa Corporation (6412.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,136.51 - $1,740.44$1,418.57
Multi-Stage$2,506.65 - $2,756.04$2,628.91
Blended Fair Value$2,023.74
Current Price$2,104.00
Upside-3.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.01%1.42%80.0180.0180.0279.9780.0380.0379.9979.8579.8774.64
YoY Growth--0.00%-0.01%0.06%-0.08%0.00%0.05%0.18%-0.03%7.00%7.38%
Dividend Yield--3.81%3.84%3.20%3.97%4.07%4.44%3.55%2.99%3.19%3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,457.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,890.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,567.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,491.401,557.13934.28
Cash Retained (M)4,567.004,567.004,567.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,491.40-1,557.13-934.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,075.603,009.883,632.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.6398.6398.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.0430.5236.83
LTM Dividend per Share80.0080.0080.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.0430.5236.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.04110.52116.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.01%-1.01%-0.01%
Fair Value$1,136.51$1,418.57$1,740.44
Upside / Downside-45.98%-32.58%-17.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,457.0012,331.8012,207.8612,085.1611,963.6911,843.4512,198.75
Payout Ratio63.34%68.67%74.00%79.34%84.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,890.008,468.289,034.159,587.7810,129.3710,659.1111,283.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.01%-1.01%-0.01%
Year 1 PV (M)7,855.837,935.998,016.16
Year 2 PV (M)7,774.647,934.128,095.23
Year 3 PV (M)7,654.347,891.078,132.63
Year 4 PV (M)7,501.857,812.798,133.29
Year 5 PV (M)7,323.247,704.608,101.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)209,114.05220,003.68231,342.32
Equity Value (M)247,223.96259,282.26271,821.31
Shares Outstanding (M)98.6398.6398.63
Fair Value$2,506.65$2,628.91$2,756.04
Upside / Downside19.14%24.95%30.99%

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