Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bull Will Co., Ltd. (6259.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.28 - $5.04$4.10
Multi-Stage$7.26 - $7.98$7.61
Blended Fair Value$5.86
Current Price$16.00
Upside-63.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.200.570.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.66%291.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%3.04%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.791.120.67
Cash Retained (M)4.124.124.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.79-1.12-0.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.333.003.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.7424.7424.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.28$4.10$5.04
Upside / Downside-79.47%-74.35%-68.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.968.878.788.708.618.528.78
Payout Ratio54.01%61.20%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.845.436.016.577.137.678.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5.045.095.14
Year 2 PV (M)5.185.285.39
Year 3 PV (M)5.265.425.59
Year 4 PV (M)5.295.515.74
Year 5 PV (M)5.295.565.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)153.47161.46169.78
Equity Value (M)179.52188.32197.48
Shares Outstanding (M)24.7424.7424.74
Fair Value$7.26$7.61$7.98
Upside / Downside-54.65%-52.43%-50.11%

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