Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Guizhou Co., Ltd. (6199.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.49$2.85
Multi-Stage$4.59 - $5.06$4.82
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$1.09
Upside252.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS703.54%0.29%0.060.060.060.070.070.000.050.040.060.07
YoY Growth--8.16%-1.91%-13.52%4.76%3,485,092.86%-100.00%32.12%-37.58%-10.46%6.50%
Dividend Yield--6.51%3.94%3.54%3.34%3.03%0.00%2.49%2.02%2.92%3.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,785.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)918.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,866.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)757.01473.13283.88
Cash Retained (M)2,866.312,866.312,866.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-757.01-473.13-283.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,109.302,393.172,582.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,588.0514,588.0514,588.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Fair Value$2.29$2.85$3.49
Upside / Downside110.34%161.88%220.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,785.043,752.723,720.673,688.893,657.383,626.153,734.93
Payout Ratio24.27%37.42%50.56%63.71%76.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)918.741,404.201,881.312,350.162,810.873,263.533,454.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,298.721,311.951,325.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,609.281,642.241,675.54
Year 3 PV (M)1,859.331,916.741,975.32
Year 4 PV (M)2,056.762,141.882,229.61
Year 5 PV (M)2,208.612,323.442,443.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,995.4661,010.8464,150.35
Equity Value (M)67,028.1670,347.0973,799.00
Shares Outstanding (M)14,588.0514,588.0514,588.05
Fair Value$4.59$4.82$5.06
Upside / Downside321.53%342.41%364.12%

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