Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Libert Inc. (605167.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.81 - $26.75$16.17
Multi-Stage$7.58 - $8.27$7.92
Blended Fair Value$12.05
Current Price$10.50
Upside14.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS54.72%0.00%0.060.050.010.130.070.010.070.040.000.00
YoY Growth--10.67%581.10%-94.11%73.00%1,053.82%-90.87%84.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.53%0.09%1.46%1.05%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)218.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)161.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.6327.2716.36
Cash Retained (M)161.12161.12161.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.63-27.27-16.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.49133.85144.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.84445.84445.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.81$16.17$26.75
Upside / Downside2.99%54.04%154.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)218.17232.35247.45263.54280.67298.91307.88
Payout Ratio26.15%38.92%51.69%64.46%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.0590.43127.91169.87216.76269.02284.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.9482.7283.49
Year 2 PV (M)105.03107.03109.05
Year 3 PV (M)126.40130.03133.73
Year 4 PV (M)146.15151.77157.55
Year 5 PV (M)164.37172.31180.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,753.472,886.473,024.55
Equity Value (M)3,377.363,530.323,688.92
Shares Outstanding (M)445.84445.84445.84
Fair Value$7.58$7.92$8.27
Upside / Downside-27.86%-24.59%-21.20%

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