Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co., Ltd. (603856.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.37 - $35.49$21.48
Multi-Stage$10.01 - $10.94$10.47
Blended Fair Value$15.97
Current Price$11.51
Upside38.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.67%13.98%0.290.170.150.360.230.170.140.050.050.09
YoY Growth--72.35%12.76%-58.44%57.65%30.39%27.19%170.67%-2.17%-39.70%9.76%
Dividend Yield--2.56%1.57%1.29%2.50%1.46%1.56%1.08%0.38%0.43%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.9421.8413.10
Cash Retained (M)137.28137.28137.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.94-21.84-13.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.34115.44124.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.46268.46268.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.37$21.48$35.49
Upside / Downside24.82%86.62%208.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.72186.08198.17211.05224.77239.38246.56
Payout Ratio21.43%35.14%48.86%62.57%76.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.4465.3996.82132.06171.47215.44228.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.2659.8260.38
Year 2 PV (M)79.5081.0182.54
Year 3 PV (M)98.25101.07103.95
Year 4 PV (M)115.60120.04124.61
Year 5 PV (M)131.61137.97144.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,203.262,309.682,420.17
Equity Value (M)2,687.472,809.592,936.21
Shares Outstanding (M)268.46268.46268.46
Fair Value$10.01$10.47$10.94
Upside / Downside-13.03%-9.08%-4.98%

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