Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Gaofa Automotive Control System Co., Ltd. (603788.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.80 - $173.44$162.54
Multi-Stage$26.00 - $28.41$27.18
Blended Fair Value$94.86
Current Price$17.92
Upside429.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.35%16.63%0.600.500.500.600.600.610.740.510.380.22
YoY Growth--20.00%0.00%-16.67%0.00%-1.76%-17.11%45.39%33.65%76.65%66.67%
Dividend Yield--3.67%3.53%4.30%4.89%4.38%3.85%4.42%1.74%1.38%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)193.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.7824.2414.54
Cash Retained (M)37.7437.7437.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.78-24.24-14.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.0313.5123.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.33222.33222.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.060.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.060.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.80$162.54$173.44
Upside / Downside295.07%807.01%867.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)193.89206.49219.92234.21249.43265.65273.62
Payout Ratio80.53%82.43%84.32%86.21%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.15170.20185.43201.92219.77239.08253.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)158.26159.76161.26
Year 2 PV (M)160.31163.37166.45
Year 3 PV (M)162.31166.97171.72
Year 4 PV (M)164.26170.58177.07
Year 5 PV (M)166.15174.18182.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,969.105,209.115,458.31
Equity Value (M)5,780.396,043.966,317.31
Shares Outstanding (M)222.33222.33222.33
Fair Value$26.00$27.18$28.41
Upside / Downside45.09%51.70%58.56%

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