Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jack Technology Co.,Ltd (603337.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.53 - $380.92$356.98
Multi-Stage$55.75 - $61.00$58.32
Blended Fair Value$207.65
Current Price$47.57
Upside336.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.68%31.32%0.890.430.470.320.170.380.220.150.300.07
YoY Growth--106.46%-8.92%46.02%89.60%-54.77%70.18%45.74%-49.20%342.11%16.26%
Dividend Yield--2.73%1.95%2.35%1.37%0.50%2.18%0.75%0.63%1.83%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)874.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)387.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)487.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.92109.3265.59
Cash Retained (M)487.27487.27487.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.92-109.32-65.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)312.35377.95421.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.61456.61456.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.830.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.830.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.681.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$155.53$356.98$380.92
Upside / Downside226.95%650.42%700.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)874.58931.43991.971,056.451,125.121,198.251,234.20
Payout Ratio44.29%53.43%62.57%71.71%80.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)387.31497.65620.69757.62909.741,078.421,141.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)462.71467.10471.49
Year 2 PV (M)536.61546.83557.15
Year 3 PV (M)609.02626.50644.32
Year 4 PV (M)679.96706.11733.01
Year 5 PV (M)749.47785.67823.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,416.1723,498.8724,623.02
Equity Value (M)25,453.9426,631.0827,852.23
Shares Outstanding (M)456.61456.61456.61
Fair Value$55.75$58.32$61.00
Upside / Downside17.19%22.61%28.23%

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