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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.,Ltd (603317.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.35 - $109.42$102.54
Multi-Stage$17.77 - $19.41$18.57
Blended Fair Value$60.56
Current Price$11.56
Upside423.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.62%24.46%0.400.230.040.150.110.080.060.190.030.03
YoY Growth--74.46%543.01%-76.07%36.24%40.00%38.89%-71.08%575.78%5.39%-39.12%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.71%0.20%1.16%0.38%0.38%0.70%2.43%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)584.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)581.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.8873.0543.83
Cash Retained (M)2.802.802.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.88-73.05-43.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-114.08-70.25-41.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,062.231,062.231,062.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.35$102.54$109.42
Upside / Downside396.08%787.01%846.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)584.41622.39662.85705.93751.82800.69824.71
Payout Ratio99.52%97.62%95.71%93.81%91.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)581.60607.56634.43662.22690.95720.62762.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)566.13571.50576.86
Year 2 PV (M)550.86561.35571.95
Year 3 PV (M)535.79551.17566.84
Year 4 PV (M)520.92540.95561.56
Year 5 PV (M)506.24530.69556.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,192.0516,974.1317,786.14
Equity Value (M)18,871.9919,729.7920,619.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,062.231,062.231,062.23
Fair Value$17.77$18.57$19.41
Upside / Downside53.69%60.67%67.92%

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