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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. (603198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$292.27 - $521.51$488.73
Multi-Stage$83.88 - $91.77$87.75
Blended Fair Value$288.24
Current Price$41.15
Upside600.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.18%21.27%1.301.100.910.700.700.700.700.600.500.40
YoY Growth--18.11%21.56%28.68%0.51%0.00%0.00%16.67%20.00%25.00%111.64%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.61%1.36%1.30%1.99%4.34%3.75%3.95%2.35%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,094.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,203.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)890.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)418.86261.79157.07
Cash Retained (M)890.97890.97890.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-418.86-261.79-157.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.12629.19733.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$292.27$488.73$521.51
Upside / Downside610.25%1,087.69%1,167.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,094.282,230.412,375.392,529.792,694.222,869.352,955.43
Payout Ratio57.46%63.97%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,203.311,426.691,674.031,947.502,249.442,582.412,733.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,330.071,342.681,355.28
Year 2 PV (M)1,454.961,482.681,510.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,578.011,623.311,669.47
Year 4 PV (M)1,699.231,764.581,831.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,818.641,906.481,997.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,105.8361,960.6664,924.76
Equity Value (M)66,986.7470,080.3873,289.63
Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
Fair Value$83.88$87.75$91.77
Upside / Downside103.83%113.24%123.01%

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