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Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Joint Stock Co., Ltd. (603165.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.56 - $149.28$139.90
Multi-Stage$23.81 - $26.03$24.90
Blended Fair Value$82.40
Current Price$13.63
Upside504.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.14%34.16%0.610.500.380.670.280.300.280.110.150.18
YoY Growth--22.48%31.70%-43.79%142.82%-8.10%7.99%159.26%-28.62%-18.45%472.91%
Dividend Yield--4.93%4.12%2.61%3.75%2.04%2.62%1.95%0.44%0.71%2.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.7026.0615.64
Cash Retained (M)54.5654.5654.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.70-26.06-15.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8628.5038.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)277.75277.75277.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.56$139.90$149.28
Upside / Downside469.06%926.39%995.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.48222.03236.47251.84268.21285.64294.21
Payout Ratio73.83%77.06%80.30%83.53%86.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.93171.11189.88210.37232.71257.08272.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.43160.94162.46
Year 2 PV (M)164.85167.99171.16
Year 3 PV (M)170.17175.05180.03
Year 4 PV (M)175.40182.14189.08
Year 5 PV (M)180.54189.26198.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,762.136,040.456,329.41
Equity Value (M)6,612.516,915.837,230.44
Shares Outstanding (M)277.75277.75277.75
Fair Value$23.81$24.90$26.03
Upside / Downside74.67%82.68%90.99%

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