Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Jiangsu Wanlin Modern Logistics Co., Ltd. (603117.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.02 - $0.03$0.02
Multi-Stage$0.04 - $0.05$0.04
Blended Fair Value$0.03
Current Price$5.39
Upside-99.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-46.65%-25.83%0.010.010.010.120.190.180.180.220.210.14
YoY Growth--17.90%-31.34%-91.89%-37.70%5.64%1.73%-19.08%5.64%47.76%-9.23%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.19%0.24%3.16%5.46%5.08%3.79%3.54%1.92%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.400.870.52
Cash Retained (M)2.662.662.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.40-0.87-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.271.792.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)558.13558.13558.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-25.44%-24.44%-23.44%
Fair Value$0.02$0.02$0.03
Upside / Downside-99.61%-99.55%-99.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.985.283.993.012.281.721.77
Payout Ratio61.86%67.48%73.11%78.74%84.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.323.562.912.371.921.551.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-25.44%-24.44%-23.44%
Year 1 PV (M)3.203.243.28
Year 2 PV (M)2.352.412.48
Year 3 PV (M)1.721.791.86
Year 4 PV (M)1.251.321.39
Year 5 PV (M)0.900.971.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)13.9514.9115.92
Equity Value (M)23.3724.6425.97
Shares Outstanding (M)558.13558.13558.13
Fair Value$0.04$0.04$0.05
Upside / Downside-99.22%-99.18%-99.14%

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