Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Xilinmen Furniture Co.,Ltd (603008.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.79 - $184.26$172.68
Multi-Stage$28.62 - $31.27$29.92
Blended Fair Value$101.30
Current Price$17.62
Upside474.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.07%17.20%0.690.250.500.440.240.230.300.160.240.12
YoY Growth--181.13%-51.37%14.88%86.11%4.69%-25.61%86.53%-33.05%105.87%-16.45%
Dividend Yield--4.02%1.43%1.61%1.52%0.89%1.87%2.59%0.92%1.20%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)346.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.3143.3225.99
Cash Retained (M)26.1426.1426.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.31-43.32-25.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-43.16-17.170.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.02374.02374.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.050.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.050.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.79$172.68$184.26
Upside / Downside369.88%880.04%945.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)346.54369.07393.06418.61445.82474.79489.04
Payout Ratio92.46%91.96%91.47%90.98%90.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.40339.41359.54380.86403.42427.31452.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)315.87318.86321.86
Year 2 PV (M)311.39317.33323.31
Year 3 PV (M)306.97315.79324.77
Year 4 PV (M)302.61314.24326.21
Year 5 PV (M)298.29312.70327.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,167.559,610.3510,070.09
Equity Value (M)10,702.6911,189.2711,693.90
Shares Outstanding (M)374.02374.02374.02
Fair Value$28.62$29.92$31.27
Upside / Downside62.40%69.79%77.44%

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