Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. (601952.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.74 - $83.39$78.15
Multi-Stage$13.28 - $14.52$13.89
Blended Fair Value$46.02
Current Price$9.38
Upside390.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.22%14.89%0.370.300.240.210.200.200.150.150.150.15
YoY Growth--24.02%25.00%14.29%5.00%0.00%30.00%6.00%0.00%0.00%56.25%
Dividend Yield--3.94%2.91%2.03%1.50%1.85%1.80%1.96%1.60%1.41%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)577.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)389.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)188.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.5672.2343.34
Cash Retained (M)188.25188.25188.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.56-72.23-43.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.69116.03144.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.001,378.001,378.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.74$78.15$83.39
Upside / Downside366.36%733.15%789.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)577.82615.37655.37697.97743.34791.66815.41
Payout Ratio67.42%71.94%76.45%80.97%85.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)389.56442.67501.04565.13635.44712.49754.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)412.49416.40420.31
Year 2 PV (M)435.05443.34451.70
Year 3 PV (M)457.25470.37483.75
Year 4 PV (M)479.08497.50516.45
Year 5 PV (M)500.55524.72549.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,013.3316,786.7817,589.84
Equity Value (M)18,297.7519,139.1220,011.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.001,378.001,378.00
Fair Value$13.28$13.89$14.52
Upside / Downside41.56%48.07%54.82%

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